They may have failed to install one of their candidates as the Republican’s presidential nominee, but the Tea Party is having better luck in other elections. Last night, Ted Cruz — backed by Sarah Palin, Rick Santorum and Ron Paul — beat Lieutenant Governor David Dewhurst 57-43 in the Republican primary for Texas’s senate election in November.
Despite being outspent nearly three-to-one, Cruz — who has never run for office before — achieved a remarkable turnaround. In the first round of the primary just nine weeks ago, Dewhurst beat him 45-34 (as neither got more than 50 per cent it went down to last night’s run-off). In the second round, Cruz received 149,000 more votes than he had in May, while Dewhurst’s count dropped by 146,000.
Of course, it’s not the first Republican primary that’s seen the Tea Party defeat the ‘establishment’ candidate. Back in 2010, Tea Party candidates prevailed in six competitive primaries. But only two of them — Ron Paul’s son Rand in Kentucky and Mike Lee in Utah — went on to become Senators. In Delaware and Nevada, meanwhile, the Tea Party insurgency likely cost the Republicans two senate seats. Might it upset their chances of a majority this year?
In Texas, the Republicans are still the strong favourite to win in November, as the Democrats — who have not won a major statewide election in Texas since 1990 — have not found a strong candidate. In the latest polling (conducted by PPP back in April) Cruz led Democratic nominee Paul Sadler by ten points. The other major Tea Party primary upset this year was Richard Mourdock’s victory over 34-year incumbent Senator Dick Lugar in Indiana. Mourdock’s still probably the slight favourite for November, but Democrat Joe Donnelly certainly has a much better chance than he would have against Lugar.
And next in the Tea Party’s sights? Wisconsin, where insurgents Eric Hovde and Marc Neumann are trying to prevent establishment favourite and former Governor Tommy Thompson from getting the nomination. Fortunately for Thompson, it looks like Hovde and Neumann might split the Tea Party vote between them, giving him a chance.
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