Society

Thursday

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Obama wheels and deals

One of the many quirks of the Democrat’s Iowa Caucus is that if your candidate gets less than 15% support, you can choose to shift your support to another candidate. The conventional wisdom is that this isn’t good for Hillary who is effectively the incumbent in this race and so Edwards and Obama are expected to pick up the lion’s share of these second preferences. The buzz today is that Obama has reached a deal with New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson so that where Richardson, who polls in the high single digits, that where Richardson has less than 15% support his precinct captains will urge his supporters to back Obama.

James Forsyth James Forsyth

What does Hillary do if she loses to Obama?

It looks increasingly like Hillary’s nightmare Iowa scenario is about to become true. So, the question is how does she come back? The brutal truth is that there is no easy solution to her troubles. In recent weeks, she has tried to showcase the softer side of her personality—something that her campaign should have done at the beginning. The problem with this approach is that it isn’t newsworthy and that it is unlikely to be a game-changer. But the alternative—attacking Obama—could be disastrous. Indeed, a lot of Hillary’s current problems stem from a feeling that she was too keen to take down Obama.  Another thing she will have to contend

The Skimmer

Number crunching

The FT’s story about 500,000 youths “too sick to work” should cause shock, but not surprise. The “figures obtained by the FT” can also be obtained by any teenager with an internet connection (for DWP time series, click here). This is a story because the degree of ignorance about the UK welfare state (and those it entraps). The sad fact is that the FT’s story could have been written at any point in the last decade. The Guardian could do a version, trumpeting the fact that the figure has been steadily coming down from 550,000 in 1999. Good to see the recently-appointed Newspaper of the Year is not beneath the

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Caucus day

One of the odd things about the Iowa caucuses is that because they do not start until 6:30PM there are no early indications on turnout or anything else. But we can read the tea-leaves.  Judging from the mood of the various campaigns, it is the Obama and Huckabee campaigns who are most confident. Obama and Huckabee are the candidates who are up in this morning’s tracking poll and any Iowan deciding who to support based on this morning’s press coverage in the local press would probably shift their way. The weather is cold but crucially there’s been no fresh fall of snow so the weather is unlikely to deter many

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Is the force with Obama?

The difference in enthusiasm and size of crowds between the Barack Obama and Mitt Romney rallies was stark.  Obama was clearly exhausted at his eve of caucus rally in Des Moines, is voice was hoarse and many of his best lines were barely audible but still his crowd was far larger and more enthusiastic than Romney’s. Those who have been covering the campaign out here for months say that the enthusiasm gap between Republicans and Democrats in a state that George W. Bush carried in 2004 is remarkable. Even the non-front-running Democrats regularly draw bigger crowds than the leading Republicans.  Obama’s delivery tonight was not exceptional but the 2,100 crowd

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Romney’s last rally feels flat

Mitt Romney’s final event before the Iowa caucus was surprisingly downbeat affair. The crowd was not huge—about 625 to 650 people according to the Romney camp—and Romney was in reflective rather than rousing mood peppering his speech with phrases such as “I don’t know what happens to us down the road” and “we’re going to make a real effort.” In short, you didn’t leave the rally thinking that you’d just seen a man who expects to win on Thursday.  Romney’s speech was designed to hit the sweet spots of Iowa Republicans. Romney extolled patriotic values, talked about being “swamped by illegal immigration” and bashed  Washington while paying tribute to George

Wednesday

Alex Massie Alex Massie

The Iowans Have It (Alas)

No more than 10% of Iowans registered as either Republicans or Democrats are likely to turn out for Thursday’s caucuses. So The American Spectator’s Philip Klein is quite right to call foul: DES MOINES — Every four years, politicians and the media swarm this small Midwestern state and shower its voters with attention and compliments, but very few people have the courage to admit the simple truth: Iowans are largely apathetic about politics, and they don’t deserve the disproportionate influence they have in choosing the leader of the free world. If Iowans are to retain their privileged position* at the front end of the Presidential primary and caucus process, would

James Forsyth James Forsyth

The Ron Paul phenomenon

Tonight, I’m planning to go and see Mitt Romney and Barack Obama’s big pre-caucus rallies but before that I’m going to pop in on a Ron Paul event.  Paul is running for the Republican nomination as an anti-war, libertarian. He has garnered an unbelievably devoted following and has been raising money hand over fist–$20 million in the last quarter alone which is almost certainly more than any other Republican. Paul won’t win the nomination but there’s a very good chance that he could beat some of the big name candidates both here and in New Hampshire. Disgracefully there are moves afoot to keep him out of one of the TV

James Forsyth James Forsyth

The key to victory in Iowa

Des Moines, Iowa Quite remarkably on the eve of the Iowa caucuses both the Democratic and Republican races are far too close to call. The determining factor on both sides will be turnout.  Obama is hoping to bring independents, disgruntled Republicans and first time caucus goers into the process and if he can succeed in doing this he’ll win: high turnout equates to an Obama victory. Many have questioned the wisdom of this strategy, arguing that expanding the universe of caucus goers is what Howard Dean tried and failed to do. But one very senior Republican told me today that he thinks Obama can pull it off, noting how professional

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Obama makes his pitch

Des Moines, Iowa Barack Obama’s closing video is radically different from Hillary’s talk to camera. Obama’s ad-men have gone for essentially a collection of his greatest hits starting  with that speech to the 2004 Democratic convention which started it all. The message is light on policy and heavy on personality and Obama’s claims to be able to put the partisan divisions of the past behind him. It is very much the ad of a candidate who is relying on the support of independents, disgruntled Republicans and idealists for victory.

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Hillary’s closing argument

Every Iowan watching the 6PM news tonight will see this extended ad from Hillary Clinton. The message hits Hillary’s theme that she is ready to be president from day one, in an unspoken contrast to Obama.

Tuesday

Alex Massie Alex Massie

Presidential Candidates Through the Lens of Wodehouse

In my sourer moments I find myself persuaded that Bertie Wooster’s verdict on aunts also applies to politicians: “It is no use telling me that there are bad aunts and good aunts. At the core, they are all alike. Sooner or later, out pops the cloven hoof.” Never is this more the case than during a Presidential campaign. The sheer ghastliness of the front-runners is something to behold. Or not, as the case may be. Try as I might, for instance, I find it hard to warm to Hillary Clinton even as I acknowledge that some of the hysteria surrounding her is absurdly overblown. And yet, there’s something to it

Alex Massie Alex Massie

Happy New Year

I shall be seeing the New Year in at 30,000 feet en route to Edinburgh (pictured below) from Washington. I trust Aer Lingus will put on a decent spread… Meanwhile, I trust readers will resist the temptation to wrap themselves in melancholy and recrimination this evening and hope that 2008 brings y’all every joy and good fortune you could (reasonably) wish for. Thanks for reading this blog and here’s to seeing you in the New Year…

Alex Massie Alex Massie

Americana: A Partial List

Some things I will miss about America: Appalachia: music, people, landscapeThe WireAmerican libertarianism: not an entirely lost causeThanksgiving: America’s best, most civilised, holidayAmtrak sleeping cars and trans-America travel in general (except by air)The classic American diner – especially in small towns where the waitress will always call you “Hon”.Skipping work for afternoon baseball (even in RFK!)BBQCommercials for “not available in stores” products such as “Miracle Putty” or “Magic Bag” or anything else that will change your life forever.The American West: idea and landscape alikeConfirmation hearings (theory)Proper country music: Cash, Jennings, Haggard et al. Also Graham Parsons and Emmylou Harris. College football Saturdays in the fall (Go Blue!)Cheap consumer durables. (Thanks

James Forsyth James Forsyth

New Iowa Poll has Obama winning big

Today’s Des Moines Register poll suggests that Barack Obama is on course for his dream result in Iowa. It has Obama at 32, Hillary Clinton at 25 and John Edwards at 24. A clear win in Iowa, with Edwards coming third, would set Obama up for victories in the subsequent contests in New Hampshire and South Carolina.  The Clinton and Edwards camps are, though, questioning the poll’s methodology which has huge turnout from independents pushing Obama over the top. Indeed, the silver lining for Clinton and Edwards is that the pressure is now on Obama to win. On the Republican side, Mike Huckabee leads Mitt Romney 32 to 26 with John

Monday

Alex Massie Alex Massie

Wodehouse Primary 2.0

I have already mentioned my suspicion that few PG Wodehouse fans are likely to endorse Hillary Clinton. It is unhealthy for a Presidential candidate to remind one of Honoria Glossop or Florence Craye so. Miss Glossop, you will remember, always wanted to mold a chap, “I think” she said “I shall be able to make something of you, Bertie. It is true yours has been a wasted life up to the present, but you are still young, and there is a lot of good in you…It simply wants bringing out.” And it seems that Mrs Clinton is of similar mind. As she said in a speech in Austin in 1993:

Alex Massie Alex Massie

Her mother’s daughter, right enough

The Clintons: a ghastliness that keeps on giving. Here’s Toby Harnden reporting from Iowa Speaking of Chelsea Clinton, it seems there’s no way she’s going to talk to journalists. “I’m sorry, I don’t talk to the press and that applies to you, unfortunately,” Chelsea said tartly when asked a question about her father Bill as “first man” by reporter Sydney Rieckhoff in Vinton. Perhaps catching herself on, she added: “Even though I think you’re cute.” As the AP reports, Sydney, a “kid reporter” for Scholastic News, is nine years old. Does she really think that if she cuts one nine-year-old some slack every news organisation is going to hire its

Alex Massie Alex Massie

The Glamour of the Skies…

For the love of god… When will these clowns learn that the only way to ensure total security is to prevent people from getting on the plane in the first place? If you don’t want to lose your spare lithium batteries for your camera, notebook or cell phone, you might want to pack carefully for your next flight. New rules from the Transportation and Security Administration that take effect on January 1 ban travelers from carrying loose lithium batteries in checked baggage. Passengers are allowed to pack two spare batteries in their carry-on bag, as long as they’re in clear plastic baggies. Fortunately, you don’t have to worry about the

James Forsyth James Forsyth

What the candidates want from Iowa

It is now only 4 days until Iowa Caucuses get the 2008 presidential contest under way. The most precious commodity that Iowa can bestow upon a candidate is momentum; the result in Iowa can set the tone for the rest of the campaign.  So, here is Coffee House’s guide to what the leading candidates want out of Iowa. The Democrats Current polls show John Edwards, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama in an effective three way tie.  John Edwards: The Southern populist needs to win Iowa. If he doesn’t, he might as well drop out of the race.  Hillary Clinton: Winning would obviously be nice and there are signs that things