Money

Motability won’t give up its lucrative business without a fight

Motability, the scheme set up to provide vehicles, scooters and powered wheelchairs to disabled people, has become something of a monster. By the end of 2024, Motability supported a staggering 815,000 vehicles, up by 200,000 in the last two years alone. It is clear that the scheme has extended way beyond its original purpose and is in dire need of reform. But Motability is determined not to give up its lucrative business model without a fight. Only five per cent of Motability cars are adapted for those with physical disabilities Andrew Miller, the scheme’s chief executive, has hit back at criticism of Motability. ‘We’ve been a business all along. Any sense

Michael Simmons

Reeves needs to tell the public that they’re wrong

Writing about Britain’s spending plans has started to feel a bit like swimming through treacle. It’s not that there aren’t lots of interesting observations to make about Wednesday’s £300 billion spending announcement. Such as the fact that the NHS sucks up the bulk of the resource spending with a 3 per cent rise in real terms, while every other department combined only grows by 0.2 per cent. Or that the health service will soon take up nearly half of all day-to-day government spending on services. Or that only 13 per cent of Rachel Reeves’s capital spending increase is classed as ‘growth-focused’. It’s hard to pay attention to this because of the sense

Michael Simmons

Britain’s GDP decline is bad news for Rachel Reeves’s spending plans

Rachel Reeves delivered her spending plans for the next three years less than 24 hours ago, but already the credibility of the Chancellor’s plans are in doubt. GDP fell by 0.3 per cent in April, according to figures released this morning by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). It spells the end of a run of more positive economic readings that Reeves had hoped would buy her room to manoeuvre in the run up to the autumn budget – when she will have to explain to the Office for Budget Responsibility, and the nation, how her spending review sums add up. The economy contracted across both services and manufacturing with

Ross Clark

Rachel Reeves’s spending review is a recipe for trouble

Rachel Reeves will apparently tell us today that she has chosen stability over chaos. It is one of the Chancellor’s standard lines, but it is very much beyond her control. Bond markets will have the ultimate say. They didn’t much like her Budget in October – indeed, long-term borrowing costs are higher now than they were in the wake of Kwasi Kwarteng’s mini Budget in September – and they might not like the spending review much more. That is a potent mixture for economic gloom – it is the economy’s mental health we should be worried about most The underlying synopsis behind today’s fiscal event is that the government is

Ross Clark

Sizewell C won’t save Ed Miliband

Ed Miliband has suddenly realised that you cannot run an electricity grid on intermittent renewables alone. The Energy Secretary’s announcement this morning of £14.2 billion worth of funding for a new plant at Sizewell C, together with cash for Small Nuclear Reactors (SMRs) and continued research into the holy grail of nuclear fusion, is an admission that energy policy so far has been far too concentrated on wind and solar. Ed Miliband has promised that his green energy policy will reduce our bills by £300 a year by the end of this Parliament But nothing that Miliband has unveiled does anything to help the energy and climate secretary achieve his

Michael Simmons

Labour’s National Insurance hike is starting to bite

The unemployment rate has risen to 4.6 per cent, the Office for National Statistics has revealed. This morning’s figures mark the first proper reading of the jobs market since April, when the minimum wage was hiked and the £25 billion raid on employer National Insurance started. It’s not just the joblessness rate rising: the number of payrolled employees fell by 55,000 between March and April, and by 115,000 compared to a year earlier. A flash estimate for May (which will be revised) shows an even starker picture: down 109,000 in a single month and 274,000 year-on-year. In other words, a city the size of Southampton has effectively been wiped off

Rachel Reeves’s winter fuel U turn is indefensible

Rachel Reeves has shown just how spineless this government is by U-turning on her flagship policy of cutting winter fuel allowance. Instead of sensibly offering only the poorest pensioners help during the coldest months, nine million pensioners on total incomes less than £35,000 will receive it. When a government with a majority of 174 seats can’t cut government spending by £1.6 billion, or, less than 0.2 per cent of its budget, there is little hope for sorting out the nation’s finances with impending demographic disaster on the horizon. In U-turning on her flagship policy, Reeves has shown just how spineless this government really is No doubt on the doorstep many

Michael Simmons

The ONS blunders. Again

‘The ONS apologises for any inconvenience caused’ is becoming an all-too-familiar refrain from Britain’s statisticians. The latest mea culpa came after a blunder involving vehicle tax data led the Office for National Statistics to overstate April’s inflation figure. Initially reported as 3.5 per cent, the true figure was 3.4 per cent – only revealed once the Department for Transport corrected its own error on the number of cars subject to increased vehicle taxes. The latest mea culpa came after a blunder led the Office for National Statistics to overstate April’s inflation figure While civil servants at the DfT are to blame, it raises serious questions about the ONS’s quality assurance

Ross Clark

Could the Winter Fuel Payment fiasco bring down Rachel Reeves?

When the Chancellor Rachel Reeves announced that she was withdrawing the Winter Fuel Payment from most pensioners on the same day, last July, when she awarded fat pay rises to many public sector workers she perhaps imagined herself as striking a blow for inter-generational fairness. Working people would get more money – at least if they worked in the public sector – and wealthy retirees a little less. Yet it is fast becoming the an issue which could prove her undoing. The tragedy of the Winter Fuel Payment fiasco is that it leaves the far bigger problem untouched We now learn that the government’s partial U-turn will involve pensioners effectively

Michael Simmons

Will Rachel Reeves heed the warnings over the UK’s gloomy economic outlook?

Rachel Reeves has been warned again that the slim headroom against her ‘ironclad’ fiscal rule could be wiped out if growth prospects worsen. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) said in its latest economic outlook for the UK that ‘very thin fiscal buffers could be insufficient to provide adequate support without breaching the fiscal rules in the event of renewed adverse shocks’. The OECD also downgraded Britain’s growth forecast. It predicted the economy will grow by 1.3 per cent in 2025 and then just 1 per cent next year – a fall from their previous forecast of 1.4 and 1.2 per cent. The OECD said this downgrade was

Why is your pension fund so obsessed with net zero?

Legal & General is Britain’s largest asset manager, with over £1 trillion on its books. Every pound it manages should be dedicated to achieving the highest possible returns. This matters a lot: L&G manages over five million pensions in the UK. But in recent years, the asset manager has been particularly concerned with fashionable causes, instead of being entirely focused on making sure your retirement is secure. Individuals already fund net zero schemes via their taxes. They should not be forced to pay an effective additional tax, via lower returns, to fund net zero with their retirement savings That is why I recently attended their AGM. I wanted to learn

Michael Simmons

Will the economy save the Tories?

This week Dominic Cummings said the Tories may have ‘crossed the event horizon’. He was trying to find a tech bro way of saying the game is up: they’re finished as an electoral force and it’s only Labour, Reform and the Lib Dems still in play. But might the Tories have one last chance? If they do, that chance will come from the economy. Next week the shadow chancellor, Mel Stride, will try to make the case for the Tories being the party of economic responsibility in a keynote speech to the Royal Society for Arts, Manufactures and Commerce. ‘Our country faces significant and increasing challenges both at home and

Michael Simmons

Is this the end of Trump’s tariffs? Don’t count on it

Overnight three federal judges on the United States Court of International Trade ruled that Donald Trump’s worldwide tariffs are unlawful and blocked them from going into effect. A group of businesses had taken the President’s administration to court, successfully arguing that the tariffs announced on ‘Liberation Day’ were beyond the powers of the presidency. The ruling made clear that the US Congress has sole authority on passing legislation affecting cross-border trade. The White House immediately appealed and argued that the court does not have the right to rule on the matter. The effect of the ruling will be to dismantle the entire tariff regime announced on Liberation Day The effect

Michael Simmons

IMF: Britain will need to raise taxes if it wants to keep spending

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned Britain faces ‘difficult fiscal choices’ if it is to meet ever increasing spending pressures. The fund predicted a surge in public spending, driven largely by commitments to welfare, health, and pensions. According to the IMF, these policies will push public spending as a share of GDP up by 8 per cent by 2050. The message is clear: unless revenue is increased – i.e even more tax rises  – the UK will need to confront ‘tough policy decisions’ about the future role of the state and the scale of public services it can afford to deliver. Crucially, the IMF noted that the government’s ability to

Ross Clark

Is Rachel Reeves prepared to raise taxes?

Some of the most infamous words in politics are ‘read my lips, no new taxes’ – uttered by George H.W. Bush as he accepted the nomination as the Republican candidate for the 1988 US presidential election. It helped him win that year but contributed to his downfall in 1992 as he failed to stick to his promise. We can argue how much of Bush’s defeat by Bill Clinton had to do with the broken tax promise and how much was to do with recession, but ‘read my lips, no new taxes’ should certainly have been on Rachel Reeves’s mind in recent months. The tragedy of Starmer’s Labour is that it

Michael Simmons

Britain is not in charge of its energy

As much of Westminster gets up in arms about fish, the major change in Starmer’s EU deal is going under the radar. The deal, announced yesterday, commits Britain and the EU to exploring Britain’s participation in Europe’s energy market. If we go forward with this, it effectively gives up our energy policy to Brussels. It’s a stark giveaway given that on the same morning the Office for National Statistics (ONS) published an analysis on ‘The impact of higher energy costs on UK businesses’. That impact is quite remarkable. Output from energy intensive industries has fallen rapidly since the beginning of 2021 when energy prices began to skyrocket. Paper manufacturing down

What’s the Treasury’s real view on immigration?

This week has seen much talk – again – of the ‘Treasury View’, and how that rarely defined set of values might be influencing this government’s approach to migration. First, let’s kill off some conspiracy theories that exist about the Treasury View. In general terms the Treasury View stands for cautious conservatism (with a small C) surrounding the payback from public spending, a belief in free trade, and in free markets. The Treasury View also extols the virtue of a steady currency, low and stable inflation, and soundly managed public finances. Former Treasury Permanent Secretary, Lord Nick Macpherson, in a speech in 2014, placed these amongst ten propositions for what

The City backlash against Reform has begun

It will be like Liz Truss on roller skates. The next election may still be four years away, and the manifestos still need to be fleshed out. Even so, the City has already started issuing stark warnings of a run on the pound if there is a Reform government led by Nigel Farage as Prime Minister. Of course, it is a measure of how far the party has come that the City is taking it seriously. The trouble is, there is also an element of truth in it. Reform would face a huge backlash in the markets – and the party will have to be ready for it.  The financial

Ross Clark

Is it any surprise junior doctors want more money?

If the government was deliberately trying to encourage union militancy, it could not be making a better job of it. It is reported that junior doctors – or ‘resident doctors’ as we are now supposed to call them for fear of implying that they might be less qualified than consultants who have been doing their jobs for 40 years – could be in line for a pay rise of five per cent this year. This would be on top of the 22 per cent they were awarded last year. Meanwhile, nurses, who had a pay rise of 5.5 per cent last year, appear to be on course for a rise of no

Is Starmer’s Trump trade deal the win he thinks it is?

Keir Starmer says it is a ‘fantastic, historic’ day after signing a trade deal with the United States, but is the agreement really something to celebrate? Ten per cent tariffs, announced last month, still apply to most UK goods entering the US The government is no doubt cock-a-hoop to be the first country to get a trade deal with President Donald Trump over the line, and there are a few wins: tariffs will come down for cars, steel, and potentially for pharmaceuticals, exempting UK exporters from the worst of the tariffs imposed on the oddly-named ‘Liberation Day’. But while, despite the dire warnings of some, we won’t be seeing chlorinated